Friday, October 12, 2007

Ontario Election Results if we had MMP

Under the current FPTP method, the 107 seats in Ontario's Legislature will be allocated by:

Liberal 71
PCs 26
NDP 10
Greens 0 for a total of 107 seats

The Liberals needed 54 seats for a majority, which they attained.

As per the referendum questions, the legislature would expand to 129 seats. 65 Seats would be required for a majority. I allocated the 90 ridings, at the same ratio as 107 seats were choosen. (ie the Liberals won 2/3 of 90 seats. Remaining seats represent the 39 At-large seats, used to bring the representation, in the legislature, to proportions approximating the actual popular vote.

Liberal 60
PCs 40
NDP 20
Greens 9 for a total of 129 Seats.

With MMP the Liberals would need another 5 seats in order to form a majority government. Given the Liberal-Green federal relationship, I would assume the same in Ontario would occur.

A coalition with the Greens would result in a slight greening of the Liberal platform, possibly with respect its' environmental policies. The Premier may nominate a Green Party MMP as the Minister of the Environment.

This is the compromise MMP would have brought to governance in Ontario. Smaller parties that did not reach the 3% of formal votes threshold, would not participate in legislature.

I'd like to comment on the possibility that MMP would result in a rush to create more smaller, single issue parties, which could some day hold considerable influence in creating a future government. I would ask why are these parties popping up? What is their motivation?

In my case, since I have been able to vote, I have voted Conservative, until this past election, where I voted for the Greens. My concerns were not being addressed by the PCs, so I turned to an Greens where their platform was in tune with my priorities.

No comments: